Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 1.76 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓62% · @1.76
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓82% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.23
Atletico-MG vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Gremio travel to Arena MRV in the Serie A on Sunday 16 August (20:00 WAT) to face Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat RB Bragantino 1–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gremio's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Sao Paulo 2–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 February 2026, finished Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Atletico-MG and 0.8 for Gremio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 1.76 – 62% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG62%fair 1.62 · @1.76
Draw20%fair 5.02 · @3.55
Gremio18%fair 5.45 · @4.55
2.53Expected goals
1.74Atletico-MG xG
0.79Gremio xG
50%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 0.8 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Gremio 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Gremio?
Atletico-MG vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
