Serie A · Brazil · MorumBISSao Paulo vs Coritiba prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.8 – 0.8 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sao Paulo are clear favourites at home with a 61% chance of winning, against 14% for Coritiba.
Sao Paulo have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. Coritiba have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.8 for Sao Paulo, 0.8 for Coritiba). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Sao Paulo have won 1, Coritiba have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.36.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sao Paulo to win ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.65 |
| Double chance | Sao Paulo or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.30 |
| Half-time result | Sao Paulo ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo ✗ | 39% | 2.58 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.17 | – |
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
| 12 Aug | @ Bolívar | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Gremio | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ Flamengo | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Jul | vs Atletico Paranaense | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Jun | @ Remo | 0–1 | L |
| 26 May | vs Boston River | 2–0 | W |
Coritiba – last 6
| 9 Aug | vs Chapecoense-sc | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | vs Cruzeiro | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Jul | @ RB Bragantino | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Jul | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 30 May | @ Flamengo | 0–3 | L |
| 26 May | vs Bahia | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
| 25 Feb 2026 | Coritiba v Sao Paulo | 0–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Coritiba 14%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at MorumBIS.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.