Value bet: Bahia to win @ 2.08 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✗52% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.28
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia preview and prediction
The match
Bahia travel to Arena Condá in the Serie A on Sunday 16 August (15:00 WAT) to face Chapecoense-sc. Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 21 points from 33 games (in the bottom three), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half). A gap of 32 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Coritiba 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Bahia's last 5: DDDDW Most recently they drew with Vasco DA Gama 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bahia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 July 2026, finished Bahia 2–0 Chapecoense-sc.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.1 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.6 for Bahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Bahia to win at 2.08 – 52% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapecoense-sc27%fair 3.66 · @3.35
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Bahia52%fair 1.93 · @2.08
2.71Expected goals
1.09Chapecoense-sc xG
1.63Bahia xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.1 – 1.6 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bahia 52%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
