Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win ✗44% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.07
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
Cruzeiro travel to Neo Química Arena in the Serie A on Sunday 16 August (23:30 WAT) to face Corinthians. Corinthians are 17th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Corinthians's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Rosario Central 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruzeiro's last 5: DWWDW Most recently they drew with Flamengo 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 February 2026, finished Cruzeiro 1–1 Corinthians.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Corinthians and 1.1 for Cruzeiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Cruzeiro to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Corinthians 1–1 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Corinthians44%fair 2.26 · @2.24
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.10
Cruzeiro33%fair 3.02 · @3.30
2.34Expected goals
1.28Corinthians xG
1.05Cruzeiro xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.3 – 1.1 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cruzeiro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Química Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
