Serie A · Brazil · Estádio São JanuárioVasco DA Gama vs Santos prediction & analysis
Vasco DA Gama or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.93 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.9 – 0.8 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Vasco DA Gama are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Santos.
Vasco DA Gama have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.3 per game. Santos have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.9 for Vasco DA Gama, 0.8 for Santos). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Santos have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Vasco DA Gama to win at 1.93 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Vasco DA Gama to win ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.93 ▲ |
| Double chance | Vasco DA Gama or draw ✗ | 86% | 1.17 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.38 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.65 | – |
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
| 13 Aug | vs Olimpia | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Aug | @ Bahia | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Aug | @ Fluminense | 3–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Fluminense | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Jul | vs Independiente Medellin | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Jul | vs Mirassol | 1–1 | D |
Santos – last 6
| 13 Aug | vs Macara | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | vs Atletico Paranaense | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Aug | @ Remo | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | vs Remo | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Jul | vs UCV | 4–2 | W |
| 25 Jul | vs Chapecoense-sc | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Feb 2026 | Santos v Vasco DA Gama | 2–1 |
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Santos 14%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Santos?
Vasco DA Gama vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.