Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.93 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win ✗58% · @1.93
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo preview and prediction
The match
Botafogo travel to Estádio São Januário in the Serie A on Sunday 5 April (01:00 WAT) to face Vasco DA Gama. Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 41 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Botafogo sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Coritiba 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Botafogo's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Mirassol 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.0 for Botafogo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 53% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 58%, draw 25%, Botafogo 17%.
Safer route: Vasco DA Gama or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 1.93 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vasco DA Gama or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Botafogo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama58%fair 1.72 · @1.93
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.45
Botafogo17%fair 5.99 · @3.85
3.04Expected goals
2.01Vasco DA Gama xG
1.03Botafogo xG
58%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–010%
1–010%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 2.0 – 1.0 Botafogo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win✗
58%
1.72
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.28
Half-time result
Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
DWDWLL
2 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
16 Mar
@ Cruzeiro
3–3
D
12 Mar
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Botafogo – last 6
WLLLLD
1 Apr
vs Mirassol
3–2
W
29 Mar
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–4
L
18 Mar
@ Palmeiras
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Flamengo
0–3
L
11 Mar
vs Barcelona SC
0–1
L
4 Mar
@ Barcelona SC
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Botafogo.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Botafogo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 2–1 Botafogo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo?
Vasco DA Gama vs Botafogo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio São Januário.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
