Value bet: Vitoria to win @ 2.92 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitoria to win ✗39% · @2.92
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28
Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Chapecoense-sc take on Vitoria on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Arena Condá. Chapecoense-sc are 20th with 21 points from 33 games (in the bottom three), while Vitoria sit 15th on 38 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 0–4 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Vitoria's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Chapecoense-sc and 1.3 for Vitoria. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Vitoria to win at 2.92 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Vitoria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapecoense-sc37%fair 2.72 · @2.40
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Vitoria39%fair 2.56 · @2.92
2.62Expected goals
1.28Chapecoense-sc xG
1.33Vitoria xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 1.3 – 1.3 Vitoria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria to win✗
39%
2.56
2.92 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitoria / FT Vitoria✗
22%
4.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.28
–
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
LWDDLW
2 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
0–4
L
26 Mar
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
20 Mar
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs Gremio
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Brusque
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria – last 6
LLLDWW
2 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–3
L
25 Mar
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
19 Mar
@ Gremio
0–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bahia
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Galícia
3–0
W
18 Feb
vs Bahia de Feira
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Vitoria.
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vitoria 39%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Our predicted score is Chapecoense-sc 1–1 Vitoria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria?
Chapecoense-sc vs Vitoria (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
