Palmeiras travel to Arena Fonte Nova in the Serie A on Sunday 5 April (23:30 WAT) to face Bahia. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Atletico Paranaense 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Palmeiras's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Gremio 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Bahia and 1.4 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 36%, draw 24%, Palmeiras 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Bahia 1–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia36%fair 2.75 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Palmeiras39%fair 2.55 · @2.64
2.70Expected goals
1.32Bahia xG
1.38Palmeiras xG
62%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.3 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win✓
39%
2.55
2.64
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras✓
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.81
–
Form
Bahia – last 6
WWWDWL
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Atlético Alagoinhas
4–2
W
18 Feb
@ O'Higgins
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
WWWLWW
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
9 Mar
@ Novorizontino
2–1
W
5 Mar
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Palmeiras.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Bahia vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Bahia have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Palmeiras 39%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
