Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & analysis
83%
Footrivo pick
Atletico-MG or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win57% · @1.90
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.58
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense travel to Arena MRV in the Serie A on Sunday 5 April (21:30 WAT) to face Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Chapecoense-sc 4–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Bahia 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.7 for Atletico-MG and 0.8 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico-MG or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG57%fair 1.75 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.35
Atletico Paranaense17%fair 5.76 · @4.10
2.57Expected goals
1.72Atletico-MG xG
0.85Atletico Paranaense xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.7 – 0.8 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win
57%
1.75
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Atletico-MG or draw
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.85
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.58
–
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
WWWLDW
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Gremio
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Itabirito
7–2
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWWLDL
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Atletico-MG or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico Paranaense 17%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico-MG vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena MRV.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
