New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Over 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: New York City FC to win @ 2.86 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew York City FC to win ✗39% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.05
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees New York Red Bulls take on New York City FC on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Sports Illustrated Stadium. New York Red Bulls are 10th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while New York City FC sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
New York Red Bulls's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Columbus Crew 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
New York City FC's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Charlotte 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
New York City FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 April 2026, finished New York Red Bulls 1–3 New York City FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.7 for New York Red Bulls and 1.7 for New York City FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 22%, New York City FC 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.48.
Value angle: New York City FC to win at 2.86 – 39% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: New York Red Bulls 1–2 New York City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New York Red Bulls39%fair 2.59 · @2.22
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.70
New York City FC39%fair 2.54 · @2.86
3.34Expected goals
1.66New York Red Bulls xG
1.68New York City FC xG
63%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: New York Red Bulls 1.7 – 1.7 New York City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
On our numbers New York Red Bulls have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New York City FC 39%.
How many goals will there be in New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
Our predicted score is New York Red Bulls 1–2 New York City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC?
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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