Value bet: Manfredonia to win @ 3.66 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPaganese to win ✗46% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 6.04
Manfredonia vs Paganese preview and prediction
The match
Paganese travel to Stadio Miramare in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 15 March (15:30 WAT) to face Manfredonia.
Form guide
Manfredonia's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Real Normanna 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Paganese's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Barletta 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for Manfredonia and 1.1 for Paganese. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Manfredonia to win at 3.66 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 77% chance. Predicted score: Manfredonia 0–1 Paganese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manfredonia31%fair 3.20 · @3.66
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.05
Paganese46%fair 2.16 · @2.04
1.87Expected goals
0.80Manfredonia xG
1.07Paganese xG
42%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–015%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Manfredonia 0.8 – 1.1 Paganese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paganese to win✗
46%
2.16
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paganese / FT Paganese✗
23%
4.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
6.04
–
Form
Manfredonia – last 3
LWL
1 Mar
@ Real Normanna
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Ferrandina
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Martina Franca
3–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Paganese – last 3
LDW
1 Mar
vs Barletta
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Sarnese
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Pompei
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manfredonia and Paganese.
What is the prediction for Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 77% chance.
Who will win Manfredonia vs Paganese?
On our numbers Manfredonia have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paganese 46%.
How many goals will there be in Manfredonia vs Paganese?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Our predicted score is Manfredonia 0–1 Paganese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Manfredonia vs Paganese?
Manfredonia vs Paganese (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Miramare.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Città di Fasano2
Ferrandina1
Afragolese1
Nola 19251
Sarnese2
Heraclea0
Barletta3