Value bet: Gravina to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGravina to win ✗45% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.26
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.94
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.81
Sarnese vs Gravina preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone H sees Sarnese take on Gravina on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 15:30 (WAT) at Stadio Felice Squitieri.
Form guide
Gravina's last 3: WWW Most recently they beat Pompei 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.2 for Sarnese and 1.5 for Gravina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sarnese 34%, draw 21%, Gravina 45%.
Value angle: Gravina to win at 2.45 – 45% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Sarnese 1–1 Gravina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarnese34%fair 2.97 · @2.45
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.30
Gravina45%fair 2.20 · @2.45
2.66Expected goals
1.20Sarnese xG
1.46Gravina xG
48%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
0–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sarnese 1.2 – 1.5 Gravina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gravina to win✗
45%
2.20
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gravina / FT Gravina✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.81
–
Form
Sarnese – last 2
DD
22 Feb
vs Paganese
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Real Normanna
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gravina – last 3
WWW
1 Mar
vs Pompei
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Virtus Francavilla
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Francavilla
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarnese and Gravina.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Sarnese vs Gravina?
On our numbers Sarnese have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gravina 45%.
How many goals will there be in Sarnese vs Gravina?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarnese vs Gravina?
Our predicted score is Sarnese 1–1 Gravina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Sarnese vs Gravina?
Sarnese vs Gravina (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Felice Squitieri.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Città di Fasano2
Ferrandina1
Afragolese1
Nola 19251
Heraclea0
Paganese1
Barletta3