The Primeira Liga sees Guimaraes take on Casa Pia on Monday 11 May, kicking off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Guimaraes are 14th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Casa Pia sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Casa Pia's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to GIL Vicente 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Guimaraes and 0.9 for Casa Pia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Guimaraes 61%, draw 22%, Casa Pia 18%.
Safer route: Guimaraes or draw (82%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Guimaraes 2–0 Casa Pia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Guimaraes61%fair 1.65 · @1.70
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.80
Casa Pia18%fair 5.67 · @4.60
2.70Expected goals
1.84Guimaraes xG
0.87Casa Pia xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Guimaraes 1.8 – 0.9 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guimaraes to win✗
61%
1.65
1.70
Double chance
Guimaraes or draw✗
82%
1.21
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Half-time result
Guimaraes ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guimaraes / FT Guimaraes✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.13
–
Form
Guimaraes – last 2
LW
4 May
@ Sporting CP
1–5
L
3 Apr
vs Tondela
5–0
W
3.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LLDLDL
27 Apr
@ GIL Vicente
1–2
L
23 Apr
vs SC Braga
0–1
L
6 Apr
vs Benfica
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Estrela
0–4
L
1 Mar
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
23 Feb
@ Famalicao
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Guimaraes and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Guimaraes have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Casa Pia 18%.
How many goals will there be in Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Guimaraes 2–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?
Guimaraes vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela2