Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Tondela to win @ 1.87 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTondela to win ✓57% · @1.87
Double chanceTondela or draw ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.57
Tondela vs Moreirense preview and prediction
The match
Tondela host Moreirense in the Primeira Liga on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Form guide
Tondela's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Sporting CP 2–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Moreirense's last 4: WDDW Most recently they beat Estoril 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Moreirense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Tondela and 0.9 for Moreirense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Tondela to win at 1.87 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tondela or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Tondela 1–0 Moreirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tondela57%fair 1.74 · @1.87
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.55
Moreirense21%fair 4.81 · @3.95
2.53Expected goals
1.66Tondela xG
0.87Moreirense xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.7 – 0.9 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win✓
57%
1.74
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Tondela or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela✓
34%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.57
–
Form
Tondela – last 6
DDLLDW
29 Apr
@ Sporting CP
2–2
D
13 Apr
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
3 Apr
@ Guimaraes
0–5
L
9 Mar
vs Rio Ave
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Santa Clara
2–2
D
20 Feb
@ Estrela
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 4
WDDW
20 Apr
vs Estoril
1–0
W
10 Apr
@ Famalicao
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Casa Pia
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Rio Ave
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Moreirense.
Our pick is Tondela or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tondela vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Tondela have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Moreirense 21%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–0 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Moreirense?
Tondela vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
