Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.60 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFamalicao to win ✗48% · @1.99
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.08
Estrela vs Famalicao preview and prediction
The match
Estrela host Famalicao in the Primeira Liga on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio José Gomes. Estrela are 12th with 10 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Famalicao sit 10th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Estrela's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Arouca 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Famalicao's last 4: DWWL Most recently they drew with Moreirense 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Famalicao arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Estrela and 1.5 for Famalicao. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Estrela to win at 3.60 – 31% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Estrela 1–1 Famalicao. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estrela31%fair 3.23 · @3.60
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Famalicao48%fair 2.07 · @1.99
2.60Expected goals
1.12Estrela xG
1.49Famalicao xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Estrela 1.1 – 1.5 Famalicao expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Famalicao to win✗
48%
2.07
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Famalicao / FT Famalicao✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.08
–
Form
Estrela – last 5
LWLDL
19 Apr
@ Arouca
0–1
L
20 Mar
vs Casa Pia
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Famalicao – last 4
DWWL
10 Apr
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Arouca
1–0
W
23 Feb
vs Casa Pia
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrela and Famalicao.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Estrela vs Famalicao?
On our numbers Estrela have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Famalicao 48%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Famalicao?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Famalicao?
Our predicted score is Estrela 1–1 Famalicao, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Famalicao?
Estrela vs Famalicao (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio José Gomes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela2