GIL Vicente host Arouca in the Primeira Liga on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. GIL Vicente are 7th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Arouca sit 5th on 20 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
GIL Vicente's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Casa Pia 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Arouca's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat Estrela 1–0 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for GIL Vicente and 0.8 for Arouca. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: GIL Vicente 63%, draw 23%, Arouca 14%.
Safer route: GIL Vicente or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: GIL Vicente 2–0 Arouca. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
GIL Vicente63%fair 1.59 · @1.66
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.75
Arouca14%fair 7.12 · @4.90
2.78Expected goals
1.96GIL Vicente xG
0.83Arouca xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: GIL Vicente 2.0 – 0.8 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GIL Vicente to win✗
63%
1.59
1.66
Double chance
GIL Vicente or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
GIL Vicente ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GIL Vicente / FT GIL Vicente✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.27
–
Form
GIL Vicente – last 6
WDWDLL
27 Apr
vs Casa Pia
2–1
W
13 Apr
@ Tondela
2–2
D
3 Apr
vs AVS
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Estrela
2–2
D
2 Mar
vs Benfica
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Estoril
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 5
WWLLW
19 Apr
vs Estrela
1–0
W
6 Apr
vs Estoril
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
1.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between GIL Vicente and Arouca.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
On our numbers GIL Vicente have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arouca 14%.
How many goals will there be in GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is GIL Vicente 2–0 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is GIL Vicente vs Arouca?
GIL Vicente vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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