Rio Ave host Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. Rio Ave are 17th with 7 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Sporting CP sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Rio Ave's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with AVS 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sporting CP's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Guimaraes 5–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 0.7 for Rio Ave and 2.5 for Sporting CP. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Rio Ave 6%, draw 19%, Sporting CP 75%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Sporting CP to win – a 75% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Rio Ave 0–2 Sporting CP. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Rio Ave6%fair 16.15 · @11.50
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @5.70
Sporting CP75%fair 1.33 · @1.24
3.22Expected goals
0.70Rio Ave xG
2.52Sporting CP xG
53%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–311%
0–110%
1–29%
1–37%
1–17%
From our goals model: Rio Ave 0.7 – 2.5 Sporting CP expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP to win✓
75%
1.33
1.24
Double chance
Sporting CP or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Half-time result
Sporting CP ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP / FT Sporting CP✓
53%
1.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.85
–
Form
Rio Ave – last 6
DWWWLL
17 Apr
vs AVS
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Estoril
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Estrela
2–1
W
9 Mar
@ Tondela
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ FC Porto
0–1
L
16 Feb
vs Moreirense
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Sporting CP – last 6
WDDDLW
4 May
vs Guimaraes
5–1
W
29 Apr
vs Tondela
2–2
D
22 Apr
@ FC Porto
0–0
D
15 Apr
@ Arsenal
0–0
D
7 Apr
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
17 Mar
vs BodoGlimt
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rio Ave and Sporting CP.
What is the prediction for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
Our pick is Sporting CP to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
On our numbers Rio Ave have a 6% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Sporting CP 75%.
How many goals will there be in Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
Our predicted score is Rio Ave 0–2 Sporting CP, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Rio Ave vs Sporting CP?
Rio Ave vs Sporting CP (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela2