Value bet: Nacional to win @ 3.45 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Clara to win ✓41% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.00
Santa Clara vs Nacional preview and prediction
The match
Santa Clara host Nacional in the Primeira Liga on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Estádio de São Miguel. Santa Clara are 4th with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Nacional sit 13th on 10 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Santa Clara's last 4: WDDL Most recently they beat AVS 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Nacional's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Estoril 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game.
Santa Clara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Santa Clara and 1.2 for Nacional. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Clara 41%, draw 24%, Nacional 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Nacional to win at 3.45 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Santa Clara 1–1 Nacional. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Clara41%fair 2.47 · @2.12
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.25
Nacional35%fair 2.83 · @3.45
2.44Expected goals
1.27Santa Clara xG
1.17Nacional xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Santa Clara 1.3 – 1.2 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Clara to win✓
41%
2.47
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara✓
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.00
–
Form
Santa Clara – last 4
WDDL
15 Mar
@ AVS
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Tondela
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Alverca
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Benfica
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 3
LLL
15 Mar
vs Estoril
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Arouca
0–3
L
15 Feb
vs FC Porto
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Clara and Nacional.
What is the prediction for Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Santa Clara vs Nacional?
On our numbers Santa Clara have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional 35%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Clara vs Nacional?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Santa Clara 1–1 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Santa Clara vs Nacional?
Santa Clara vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio de São Miguel.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela2