Toulouse travel to Stade de la Beaujoire in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 17 May (20:00 WAT) to face Nantes.
Form guide
Nantes's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Lens 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Toulouse's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Lens 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 4 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.3 for Nantes and 1.4 for Toulouse. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 63%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nantes 37%, draw 23%, Toulouse 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nantes 1–1 Toulouse. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nantes37%fair 2.70 · @2.56
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Toulouse40%fair 2.49 · @2.56
2.76Expected goals
1.34Nantes xG
1.41Toulouse xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–06%
From our goals model: Nantes 1.3 – 1.4 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toulouse to win
40%
2.49
2.56
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
63%
1.58
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
53%
1.87
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toulouse / FT Toulouse
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
9%
11.16
–
Form
Nantes – last 6
LLDLWL
8 May
@ Lens
0–1
L
22 Apr
@ Paris Saint Germain
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Metz
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Lille
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Le Havre
2–0
W
13 Feb
@ Monaco
1–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 5
LLLWL
21 Apr
@ Lens
1–4
L
17 Apr
@ Lens
2–3
L
3 Apr
@ Paris Saint Germain
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Metz
4–3
W
15 Feb
@ Le Havre
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nantes and Toulouse.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nantes vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Nantes have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Toulouse 40%.
How many goals will there be in Nantes vs Toulouse?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Nantes 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Nantes vs Toulouse?
Nantes vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade de la Beaujoire.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Metz0