Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Rennes to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarseille to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.10
Marseille vs Rennes preview and prediction
The match
Marseille host Rennes in the Ligue 1 on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Orange Vélodrome. Marseille are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Rennes sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Metz 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Rennes's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Metz 0–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rennes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.7 for Marseille and 1.4 for Rennes. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marseille 46%, draw 20%, Rennes 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Rennes to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Marseille 1–1 Rennes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille46%fair 2.19 · @2.00
Draw20%fair 4.97 · @3.70
Rennes34%fair 2.92 · @3.30
3.16Expected goals
1.71Marseille xG
1.45Rennes xG
63%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Marseille 1.7 – 1.4 Rennes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✓
46%
2.19
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✓
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.10
–
Form
Marseille – last 5
WLLWL
10 Apr
vs Metz
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Auxerre
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Rennes – last 5
DLWWW
22 Mar
vs Metz
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Nice
4–0
W
22 Feb
@ Auxerre
3–0
W
13 Feb
vs Paris Saint Germain
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Rennes.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Marseille vs Rennes?
On our numbers Marseille have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Rennes 34%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Rennes?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Rennes?
Our predicted score is Marseille 1–1 Rennes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Rennes?
Marseille vs Rennes (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nantes0
Metz0