Value bet: Lorient to win @ 2.58 – our chance 42% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLorient to win ✗42% · @2.58
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Lorient vs Le Havre preview and prediction
The match
The Ligue 1 sees Lorient take on Le Havre on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stade du Moustoir. Lorient are 10th with 15 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Le Havre sit 18th on 2 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lorient's last 5: LDDDD Most recently they lost to Strasbourg 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Le Havre's last 5: DDLDL Most recently they drew with Lille 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Lorient arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Lorient and 1.2 for Le Havre. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lorient 42%, draw 23%, Le Havre 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Lorient to win at 2.58 – 42% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Lorient 1–1 Le Havre. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lorient42%fair 2.39 · @2.58
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Le Havre35%fair 2.85 · @2.58
2.65Expected goals
1.40Lorient xG
1.25Le Havre xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.4 – 1.2 Le Havre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
42%
2.39
2.58 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorient / FT Lorient✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.09
–
Form
Lorient – last 6
LDDDDW
26 Apr
vs Strasbourg
2–3
L
5 Apr
vs Paris FC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Lille
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Auxerre
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Nice
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Angers
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Le Havre – last 6
DDLDLL
3 May
@ Lille
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Auxerre
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Paris FC
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Lyon
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Nantes
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Le Havre.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Lorient vs Le Havre?
On our numbers Lorient have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Le Havre 35%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Le Havre?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Le Havre?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Le Havre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Le Havre?
Lorient vs Le Havre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nantes0
Metz0