FA Cup · England
AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe prediction & analysis
Morecambe to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AFC Rushden & Diamonds 1.0 – 2.0 Morecambe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Morecambe travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 20% for AFC Rushden & Diamonds.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Morecambe have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (1.0 for AFC Rushden & Diamonds, 2.0 for Morecambe). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 0–2 (10%).
Our pick is Morecambe to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is better than our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Morecambe to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.67 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Half-time result | Morecambe ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Morecambe / FT Morecambe ✗ | 38% | 2.60 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 10% | 10.05 | – |
Form
AFC Rushden & Diamonds – last 6
| 3 Oct | vs Braintree | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Peterborough Sports | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Desborough Town | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Chasetown | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Jul | vs Milton Keynes Irish | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Apr | vs Mickleover Sports | 0–0 | D |
Morecambe – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Worksop Town | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Darlington 1883 | 3–0 | W |
| 26 Sep | @ Oxford City | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Southport | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Brackley Town | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Southport | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe.
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What is the prediction for AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe?
Our pick is Morecambe to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe?
On our numbers AFC Rushden & Diamonds have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Morecambe 61%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe?
AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.