Value bet: Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win @ 1.70 – our chance 62% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOlimpo Bahia Blanca to win ✗62% · @1.70
Double chanceOlimpo Bahia Blanca or draw ✓85% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.82
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa preview and prediction
The match
The Torneo Federal A sees Olimpo Bahia Blanca take on San Martin Formosa on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti. Olimpo Bahia Blanca are 1st with 31 points from 16 games (top of the table), while San Martin Formosa sit 4th on 30 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Olimpo Bahia Blanca's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Gimnasia Chivilcoy 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
San Martin Formosa's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Atenas 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Olimpo Bahia Blanca and 0.6 for San Martin Formosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 62%, draw 23%, San Martin Formosa 15%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win at 1.70 – 62% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–0 San Martin Formosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Olimpo Bahia Blanca62%fair 1.60 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.25
San Martin Formosa15%fair 6.82 · @4.75
2.24Expected goals
1.62Olimpo Bahia Blanca xG
0.62San Martin Formosa xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–011%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.6 – 0.6 San Martin Formosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win✗
62%
1.60
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Olimpo Bahia Blanca / FT Olimpo Bahia Blanca✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.82
–
Form
Olimpo Bahia Blanca – last 6
WWDDLW
4 Oct
@ Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Alvarado
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Cipolletti
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Atenas
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Kimberley Mar del Plata
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martin Formosa – last 6
DWDWLW
4 Oct
vs Atenas
1–1
D
27 Sep
@ Atenas
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Bartolomé Mitre
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Sarmiento de La Banda
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Defensores de Belgrano VR
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs 9 de Julio Rafaela
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Olimpo Bahia Blanca and San Martin Formosa.
What is the prediction for Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa?
On our numbers Olimpo Bahia Blanca have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and San Martin Formosa 15%.
How many goals will there be in Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa?
Our predicted score is Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–0 San Martin Formosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa?
Olimpo Bahia Blanca vs San Martin Formosa (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Roberto Natalio Carminatti.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
