Value bet: Kimberley Mar del Plata to win @ 3.80 – our chance 28% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Rincon to win ✗47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.35
Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Rincon host Kimberley Mar del Plata in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros. Deportivo Rincon are 22nd with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Kimberley Mar del Plata sit 8th on 26 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Deportivo Rincon's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Santamarina 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kimberley Mar del Plata's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Villa Mitre 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.0 for Deportivo Rincon and 0.7 for Kimberley Mar del Plata. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 76% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Deportivo Rincon 47%, draw 25%, Kimberley Mar del Plata 28%.
Both teams to score: no (55%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Kimberley Mar del Plata to win at 3.80 – 28% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Deportivo Rincon 1–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Rincon47%fair 2.13 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.70
Kimberley Mar del Plata28%fair 3.55 · @3.80
1.69Expected goals
1.01Deportivo Rincon xG
0.68Kimberley Mar del Plata xG
45%Both score
24%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–018%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Deportivo Rincon 1.0 – 0.7 Kimberley Mar del Plata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Rincon to win✗
47%
2.13
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.35
–
Form
Deportivo Rincon – last 6
WLDDWL
20 Sep
vs Santamarina
3–0
W
13 Sep
@ Fundacion Amigos
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Costa Brava
1–1
D
30 Aug
@ Germinal de Rawson
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Juventud Unida Univ.
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ San Martín Mendoza
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Kimberley Mar del Plata – last 6
DDWLLW
20 Sep
@ Villa Mitre
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Huracan Las Heras
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Juventud Antoniana
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Alvarado
0–2
L
23 Aug
@ Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Cipolletti
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Deportivo Rincon and Kimberley Mar del Plata.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata?
On our numbers Deportivo Rincon have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Kimberley Mar del Plata 28%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 24% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Rincon 1–0 Kimberley Mar del Plata, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata?
Deportivo Rincon vs Kimberley Mar del Plata (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Gremio de Los Petroleros.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
