Value bet: Defensores de Vilelas to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGimnasia Chivilcoy to win ✗44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.33
Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy preview and prediction
The match
Defensores de Vilelas host Gimnasia Chivilcoy in the Torneo Federal A on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT). Defensores de Vilelas are 24th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Gimnasia Chivilcoy sit 6th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Defensores de Vilelas's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Boca Unidos 3–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Defensores de Vilelas and 1.2 for Gimnasia Chivilcoy. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Defensores de Vilelas to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.84, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensores de Vilelas32%fair 3.12 · @3.50
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.80
Gimnasia Chivilcoy44%fair 2.27 · @2.10
2.21Expected goals
0.98Defensores de Vilelas xG
1.23Gimnasia Chivilcoy xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Defensores de Vilelas 1.0 – 1.2 Gimnasia Chivilcoy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimnasia Chivilcoy to win✗
44%
2.27
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimnasia Chivilcoy / FT Gimnasia Chivilcoy✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.33
–
Form
Defensores de Vilelas – last 6
DWLDLW
20 Sep
@ Boca Unidos
3–3
D
13 Sep
vs Independiente De Chivilcoy
2–0
W
7 Sep
@ Atletico Escobar
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs El Linqueño
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Gimnasia Concepción
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Tucuman Central
4–3
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gimnasia Chivilcoy – last 6
LLDWWW
4 Oct
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Olimpo Bahia Blanca
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Douglas Haig
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Bartolomé Mitre
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Sarmiento de La Banda
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Defensores de Belgrano VR
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores de Vilelas and Gimnasia Chivilcoy.
What is the prediction for Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
On our numbers Defensores de Vilelas have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Gimnasia Chivilcoy 44%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Our predicted score is Defensores de Vilelas 1–1 Gimnasia Chivilcoy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy?
Defensores de Vilelas vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
