Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
Varzim or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVarzim to win ✗63% · @1.75
Double chanceVarzim or draw ✗87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.34
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim preview and prediction
The match
The Taça De Portugal sees Vitória de Sernache take on Varzim on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Vitória de Sernache's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to Caldas 0–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Varzim's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Vianense 1–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Varzim arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 1.5 for Vitória de Sernache and 3.0 for Varzim. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 83% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vitória de Sernache 13%, draw 25%, Varzim 63%.
Safer route: Varzim or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Varzim or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vitória de Sernache 1–2 Varzim. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitória de Sernache13%fair 7.86 · @4.00
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.20
Varzim63%fair 1.60 · @1.75
4.50Expected goals
1.52Vitória de Sernache xG
2.98Varzim xG
62%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–27%
1–37%
2–26%
2–36%
1–46%
1–15%
From our goals model: Vitória de Sernache 1.5 – 3.0 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Varzim to win✗
63%
1.60
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Varzim or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Varzim ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Varzim / FT Varzim✗
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.34
–
Form
Vitória de Sernache – last 6
LLWLDL
13 Sep
@ Caldas
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs CF Os Belenenses
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
23 Aug
@ Oliveirense
2–3
L
16 Aug
vs SC Covilha
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Mafra
0–5
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Varzim – last 6
LLWWWW
12 Sep
vs Vianense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Paredes
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Trofense
5–1
W
22 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
4–1
W
16 Aug
vs AD Marco 09
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Trofense
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória de Sernache and Varzim.
What is the prediction for Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?
Our pick is Varzim or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?
On our numbers Vitória de Sernache have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Varzim 63%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?
Our predicted score is Vitória de Sernache 1–2 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?
Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Atlético CP4
Lagoa1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Oliveirense1
Penafiel2
Mafra1
Tirsense1
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2