Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMafra to win ✗65% · @1.50
Double chanceMafra or draw ✓90% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.83
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 14.37
Mafra vs Tirsense preview and prediction
The match
Tirsense travel to face Mafra in the Taça De Portugal on Saturday 19 September (18:00 WAT).
Form guide
Mafra's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to Oliveirense 1–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Tirsense's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Brito 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tirsense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.0 goals: 3.3 for Mafra and 1.7 for Tirsense. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mafra 65%, draw 25%, Tirsense 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.83 – 60% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mafra to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Mafra 3–1 Tirsense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mafra65%fair 1.54 · @1.50
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.60
Tirsense10%fair 9.65 · @5.00
5.00Expected goals
3.35Mafra xG
1.65Tirsense xG
60%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–17%
2–16%
4–16%
3–26%
2–25%
4–25%
From our goals model: Mafra 3.3 – 1.7 Tirsense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Double chance
Mafra or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.83 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Mafra ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✗
49%
2.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
14.37
–
Form
Mafra – last 6
LWDLDW
12 Sep
@ Oliveirense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs SC Covilha
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Atlético Malveira
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Lusitano Évora 1911
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Atlético CP
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Vitória de Sernache
5–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tirsense – last 6
WLWWLW
13 Sep
vs Brito
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Celoricense
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Vinhais
3–0
W
16 Aug
@ Rebordosa
1–0
W
29 Jul
vs Varzim
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Mirandela
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and Tirsense.
Our pick is Mafra to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Mafra vs Tirsense?
On our numbers Mafra have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tirsense 10%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Tirsense?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Tirsense?
Our predicted score is Mafra 3–1 Tirsense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs Tirsense?
Mafra vs Tirsense (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Vitória de Sernache2
Varzim1
Atlético CP4
Lagoa1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Oliveirense1
Penafiel2
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2