Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win ✓44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 12.87
Oliveirense vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
Oliveirense host Penafiel in the Taça De Portugal on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Oliveirense's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Mafra 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Penafiel's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Felgueiras 1932 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.9 for Oliveirense and 2.1 for Penafiel. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 66%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Oliveirense 1–2 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oliveirense34%fair 2.96 · @3.30
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
Penafiel44%fair 2.28 · @2.05
4.00Expected goals
1.87Oliveirense xG
2.13Penafiel xG
66%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–28%
1–17%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: Oliveirense 1.9 – 2.1 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✓
44%
2.28
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Penafiel ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
28%
3.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
12.87
–
Form
Oliveirense – last 6
WLWWDD
12 Sep
vs Mafra
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético CP
1–3
L
29 Aug
vs Penalva Castelo
4–0
W
23 Aug
vs Vitória de Sernache
3–2
W
14 Aug
@ União Santarém
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Louletano
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
WWWWDL
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Academica
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
23 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Torreense
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Portimonense
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oliveirense and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Oliveirense have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penafiel 44%.
How many goals will there be in Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Oliveirense 1–2 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
Oliveirense vs Penafiel (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Vitória de Sernache2
Varzim1
Atlético CP4
Lagoa1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Mafra1
Tirsense1
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2