Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Louletano to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLouletano to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceLouletano or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗25% · fair 3.92
FC Serpa vs Louletano preview and prediction
The match
The Taça De Portugal sees FC Serpa take on Louletano on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
FC Serpa's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Lagoa 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Louletano's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to União Santarém 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Louletano 2–1 FC Serpa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.4 for FC Serpa and 1.1 for Louletano. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Serpa 16%, draw 23%, Louletano 61%.
Safer route: Louletano or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Louletano to win at 1.85 – 61% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Louletano or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Serpa 0–1 Louletano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Serpa16%fair 6.13 · @3.75
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.00
Louletano61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
1.50Expected goals
0.36FC Serpa xG
1.14Louletano xG
44%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–125%
0–022%
0–215%
1–19%
1–08%
0–36%
From our goals model: FC Serpa 0.4 – 1.1 Louletano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Louletano or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win FC Serpa vs Louletano?
On our numbers FC Serpa have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Louletano 61%.
How many goals will there be in FC Serpa vs Louletano?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Serpa vs Louletano?
Our predicted score is FC Serpa 0–1 Louletano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is FC Serpa vs Louletano?
FC Serpa vs Louletano (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fafe4
Lajense0
Cinfães0
Leixoes4
Fátima4
Vinhais1
Bragança6
Celoricense1
Mortágua0
Leça2
Ponte da Barca0
Amarante2
Sintrense0
AVS2
Paredes5
Maria da Fonte1