Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeça to win ✓61% · @1.70
Double chanceLeça or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Mortágua vs Leça preview and prediction
The match
Mortágua host Leça in the Taça De Portugal on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Mortágua's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with UD da Serra 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Leça's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Trofense 4–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Mortágua arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mortágua 18%, draw 21%, Leça 61%.
Safer route: Leça or draw (82%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leça to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mortágua18%fair 5.60 · @4.60
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.10
Leça61%fair 1.63 · @1.70
Most likely scores
Goal projections appear once goal data is in.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leça to win✓
61%
1.63
1.70
Double chance
Leça or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Form
Mortágua – last 6
DWDWWW
13 Sep
@ UD da Serra
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Fazendense
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ SC Covilha
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Sertanense
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Nazarenos
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Marinhense
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leça – last 6
WLWLDD
12 Sep
@ Trofense
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Fafe
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Paredes
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Guimaraes B
0–2
L
9 Aug
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
29 Jul
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Leça.
Our pick is Leça to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Mortágua vs Leça?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leça 61%.
When is Mortágua vs Leça?
Mortágua vs Leça (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fafe4
Lajense0
Cinfães0
Leixoes4
Fátima4
Vinhais1
Bragança6
Celoricense1
Ponte da Barca0
Amarante2
FC Serpa1
Louletano1
Sintrense0
AVS2
Paredes5
Maria da Fonte1