Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 50% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultParedes to win ✓70% · @1.22
Double chanceParedes or draw ✓87% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.43
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte preview and prediction
The match
Maria da Fonte travel to face Paredes in the Taça De Portugal on Sunday 20 September (16:00 WAT).
Form guide
Paredes's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Fafe 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Maria da Fonte's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to SC Braga B 0–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Paredes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Paredes and 0.6 for Maria da Fonte. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paredes 70%, draw 17%, Maria da Fonte 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 50% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paredes to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Paredes 1–0 Maria da Fonte. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paredes70%fair 1.42 · @1.22
Draw17%fair 6.05 · @4.75
Maria da Fonte13%fair 7.59 · @13.00
2.50Expected goals
1.89Paredes xG
0.61Maria da Fonte xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Paredes 1.9 – 0.6 Maria da Fonte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paredes to win✓
70%
1.42
1.22
Double chance
Paredes or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Paredes ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paredes / FT Paredes✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.43
–
Form
Paredes – last 6
WWWLWW
13 Sep
vs Fafe
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Varzim
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Ermesinde
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Leça
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Pacos Ferreira
1–0
W
7 Aug
vs Guimaraes B
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Maria da Fonte – last 6
LLWLWL
13 Sep
vs SC Braga B
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Brito
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Uniao Nogueirense
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Celoricense
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Vinhais
1–0
W
31 Jul
@ Fafe
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paredes and Maria da Fonte.
What is the prediction for Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?
Our pick is Paredes to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?
On our numbers Paredes have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Maria da Fonte 13%.
How many goals will there be in Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?
Our predicted score is Paredes 1–0 Maria da Fonte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Paredes vs Maria da Fonte?
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fafe4
Lajense0
Cinfães0
Leixoes4
Fátima4
Vinhais1
Bragança6
Celoricense1
Mortágua0
Leça2
Ponte da Barca0
Amarante2
FC Serpa1
Louletano1
Sintrense0
AVS2