Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.50 – our chance 57% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +44%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFátima to win ✓72% · @1.22
Double chanceFátima or draw ✓90% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @2.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.77
Fátima vs Vinhais preview and prediction
The match
The Taça De Portugal sees Fátima take on Vinhais on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Fátima's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Oliveira Hospital 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Vinhais's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Vila Meã 0–4 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Fátima arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.9 for Fátima and 1.1 for Vinhais. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 76% and both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Fátima 72%, draw 19%, Vinhais 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 2.50.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.50 – 57% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fátima to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Fátima 2–1 Vinhais. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fátima72%fair 1.40 · @1.22
Draw19%fair 5.36 · @4.60
Vinhais10%fair 10.27 · @15.00
4.00Expected goals
2.88Fátima xG
1.12Vinhais xG
57%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
2–08%
3–07%
4–16%
1–16%
From our goals model: Fátima 2.9 – 1.1 Vinhais expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fátima to win✓
72%
1.40
1.22
Double chance
Fátima or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
2.50 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Half-time result
Fátima ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fátima / FT Fátima✓
51%
1.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.77
–
Form
Fátima – last 6
LLWWDL
13 Sep
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Os Marialvas
0–3
L
29 Aug
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Atlético Malveira
5–0
W
16 Aug
@ O Elvas
1–1
D
29 Mar
vs Oliveira Hospital
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vinhais – last 4
LLLL
13 Sep
@ Vila Meã
0–4
L
6 Sep
vs Chaves II
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Tirsense
0–3
L
16 Aug
vs Maria da Fonte
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fátima and Vinhais.
Our pick is Fátima to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fátima vs Vinhais?
On our numbers Fátima have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Vinhais 10%.
How many goals will there be in Fátima vs Vinhais?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fátima vs Vinhais?
Our predicted score is Fátima 2–1 Vinhais, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Fátima vs Vinhais?
Fátima vs Vinhais (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fafe4
Lajense0
Cinfães0
Leixoes4
Bragança6
Celoricense1
Mortágua0
Leça2
Ponte da Barca0
Amarante2
FC Serpa1
Louletano1
Sintrense0
AVS2
Paredes5
Maria da Fonte1