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Today's tips
Taça De Portugal · Portugal

AD Marco 09

WDWWL
1–0
FT

Maia Lidador

DLDLL

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador prediction & analysis

82%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.33Odds
U2.5

Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Quick tips for this match

ResultAD Marco 09 to win ✓73% · @1.27
Double chanceAD Marco 09 or draw ✓93% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓29% · fair 3.43

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador preview and prediction

The match

AD Marco 09 host Maia Lidador in the Taça De Portugal on Sunday 20 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT).

Form guide

AD Marco 09's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Guimaraes B 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

Maia Lidador's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Montalegre 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.

AD Marco 09 arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.4.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.4 for AD Marco 09 and 0.2 for Maia Lidador. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.

Betting angles

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.33, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AD Marco 09 1–0 Maia Lidador. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

AD Marco 0973%fair 1.36 · @1.27
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @4.33
Maia Lidador7%fair 14.63 · @11.00
1.59Expected goals
1.43AD Marco 09 xG
0.16Maia Lidador xG
37%Both score
36%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–029%
2–021%
0–020%
3–010%
1–15%
4–04%

From our goals model: AD Marco 09 1.4 – 0.2 Maia Lidador expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAD Marco 09 to win ✓73%1.361.27
Double chanceAD Marco 09 or draw ✓93%1.071.04
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓63%1.591.53
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗60%1.661.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓64%1.551.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82%1.231.33 ▲
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗52%1.92–
Half-time / full-timeHT AD Marco 09 / FT AD Marco 09 ✓43%2.33–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓29%3.43–

Form

AD Marco 09 – last 6

WDWWLW
12 Sepvs Guimaraes B1–0W
6 Sep@ São João Ver0–0D
30 Aug@ Régua1–0W
23 Augvs Vianense2–0W
16 Aug@ Varzim1–2L
9 Augvs Pacos Ferreira2–1W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Maia Lidador – last 5

DLDLL
13 Sep@ Montalegre1–1D
6 Sepvs Bragança0–1L
30 Augvs Vila Meã0–0D
23 Augvs Ponte da Barca0–1L
16 Aug@ SC Braga B1–2L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between AD Marco 09 and Maia Lidador.

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Fafe4 Lajense0 168%1.25X20%4.75211%10.00 1Fafe to win 68%@1.25 ✓
FT Cinfães0 Leixoes4 19%7.00X23%3.90268%1.36 NGNot both teams to score 60%@1.80 ✓
FT Fátima4 Vinhais1 172%1.22X19%4.60210%15.00 1Fátima to win 72%@1.22 ✓
FT Bragança6 Celoricense1 163%1.80X25%3.10213%4.00 1XBragança or draw 87%@1.20 ✓
FT Mortágua0 Leça2 118%4.60X21%3.10261%1.70 2Leça to win 61%@1.70 ✓
FT Ponte da Barca0 Amarante2 110%15.00X17%5.00272%1.18 2Amarante to win 72%@1.18 ✓
FT FC Serpa1 Louletano1 AET 1–2 116%3.75X23%3.00261%1.85 X2Louletano or draw 84%@1.22 ✓
FT Sintrense0 AVS2 116%4.80X20%3.40264%1.60 GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.75 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

On our numbers AD Marco 09 have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Maia Lidador 7%.

How many goals will there be in AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

Our predicted score is AD Marco 09 1–0 Maia Lidador, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.

When is AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador?

AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.