Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✗75% · @1.14
Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✓95% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗14% · fair 7.11
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty preview and prediction
The match
Atalanta host Kairat Almaty in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 5 November, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at New Balance Arena. Atalanta are 16th with 4 points from 3 games (in the top half), while Kairat Almaty sit 27th on 2 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atalanta's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to Parma 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Kairat Almaty's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Altay 1–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Kairat Almaty arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.4 for Atalanta and 0.6 for Kairat Almaty. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 64% and both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 54% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.76, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atalanta 2–0 Kairat Almaty. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atalanta75%fair 1.33 · @1.14
Draw20%fair 5.10 · @7.50
Kairat Almaty5%fair 19.27 · @17.00
3.04Expected goals
2.43Atalanta xG
0.61Kairat Almaty xG
54%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–012%
3–011%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
From our goals model: Atalanta 2.4 – 0.6 Kairat Almaty expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✗
75%
1.33
1.14
Double chance
Atalanta or draw✓
95%
1.05
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.83
Half-time result
Atalanta ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✗
53%
1.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
14%
7.11
–
Form
Atalanta – last 6
LDDLLW
2 Nov
vs Parma
0–3
L
29 Oct
@ Fiorentina
2–2
D
25 Oct
vs Frosinone
4–4
D
22 Oct
@ Ajax
0–2
L
18 Oct
@ AC Milan
2–3
L
15 Oct
vs Pafos
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Kairat Almaty – last 6
DDLWDW
31 Oct
vs Altay
1–1
D
25 Oct
@ Aktobe
2–2
D
22 Oct
vs Panathinaikos
1–5
L
18 Oct
vs Irtysh
5–0
W
15 Oct
@ Riga
1–1
D
10 Oct
vs Zhetysu
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atalanta and Kairat Almaty.
What is the prediction for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Kairat Almaty 5%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 2–0 Kairat Almaty, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty?
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
