Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 54% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +85%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗54% · @3.40
Double chanceAC Milan or draw ✗82% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗7% · fair 13.82
AC Milan vs Benfica preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees AC Milan take on Benfica on Wednesday 16 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. AC Milan are 28th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Benfica sit 1st on 12 points (top of the table).
Form guide
AC Milan's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Lazio 2–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Benfica's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat GIL Vicente 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 2.2 for AC Milan and 1.9 for Benfica. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AC Milan 28%, draw 54%, Benfica 18%.
Safer route: AC Milan or draw (82%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Draw at 3.40 – 54% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AC Milan or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.21, so there is value in it. Predicted score: AC Milan 2–1 Benfica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AC Milan28%fair 3.58 · @2.10
Draw54%fair 1.84 · @3.40
Benfica18%fair 5.66 · @3.25
4.17Expected goals
2.22AC Milan xG
1.95Benfica xG
65%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
2–27%
1–17%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: AC Milan 2.2 – 1.9 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
54%
1.84
3.40 ▲
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✗
82%
1.21
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
AC Milan ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
28%
3.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–2✗
7%
13.82
–
Form
AC Milan – last 6
DDWWWL
12 Sep
@ Lazio
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Juventus
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Venezia
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Torino
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Manchester United
4–2
W
8 Aug
@ Chelsea
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWW
13 Sep
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Moreirense
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Estoril
2–1
W
27 Aug
@ Aarhus
3–1
W
20 Aug
vs Aarhus
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Benfica.
Our pick is AC Milan or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AC Milan vs Benfica?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 54% and Benfica 18%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Benfica?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 2–1 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Benfica?
AC Milan vs Benfica (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
