Value bet: AEK Athens FC to win @ 2.60 – our chance 50% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAEK Athens FC to win ✗50% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.76
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Champions League sees Shakhtar Donetsk take on AEK Athens FC on Wednesday 14 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stamford Bridge. Shakhtar Donetsk are 21st with 4 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while AEK Athens FC sit 29th on 3 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Shakhtar Donetsk's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Veres Rivne 3–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AEK Athens FC's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat OFI 3–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.7 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.1 for AEK Athens FC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: AEK Athens FC to win at 2.60 – 50% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shakhtar Donetsk28%fair 3.56 · @2.50
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.20
AEK Athens FC50%fair 2.00 · @2.60
1.75Expected goals
0.68Shakhtar Donetsk xG
1.07AEK Athens FC xG
50%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–119%
0–017%
1–113%
1–012%
0–210%
1–27%
From our goals model: Shakhtar Donetsk 0.7 – 1.1 AEK Athens FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Athens FC to win✗
50%
2.00
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Athens FC / FT AEK Athens FC✗
25%
3.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
14.76
–
Form
Shakhtar Donetsk – last 6
WWWWDW
9 Oct
@ Veres Rivne
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs LNZ Cherkasy
3–0
W
17 Sep
@ Vilkhivtsi
3–0
W
14 Sep
vs Chornomorets
2–0
W
10 Sep
@ PSV Eindhoven
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Karpaty
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AEK Athens FC – last 6
WWWDWW
10 Oct
vs OFI
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Volos NFC
2–1
W
17 Sep
vs Panserraikos
8–1
W
13 Sep
@ Asteras Tripolis
1–1
D
8 Sep
vs Lask Linz
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Aris Thessalonikis
5–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shakhtar Donetsk and AEK Athens FC.
What is the prediction for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
On our numbers Shakhtar Donetsk have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AEK Athens FC 50%.
How many goals will there be in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
Our predicted score is Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 AEK Athens FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
