AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction & analysis
Real Madrid or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: Real Madrid to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AS Roma 0.9 – 1.6 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Real Madrid shade it despite being away from home – 56% to win, against 21% for AS Roma.
AS Roma have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 per game. Real Madrid have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.5 goals (0.9 for AS Roma, 1.6 for Real Madrid). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (11%).
Our pick is Real Madrid or draw at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is better than our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Real Madrid to win at 1.91 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Madrid to win ✓ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Real Madrid or draw ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.32 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid ✗ | 34% | 2.96 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.47 | – |
Form
AS Roma – last 6
| 11 Oct | @ Como | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Inter | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Sep | @ Torino | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Sep | @ Fenerbahçe | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Lecce | 4–0 | W |
Real Madrid – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Atletico Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Sep | @ Elche | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Inter | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Sep | @ Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Real Madrid.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodo/Glimt | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | -16 | 0 |
More UEFA Champions League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Real Madrid or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 56%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
AS Roma vs Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.