Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe prediction & analysis
Aston Villa to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.7 – 0.5 Fenerbahçe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Aston Villa are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 12% for Fenerbahçe.
Aston Villa have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 per game. Fenerbahçe have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.5 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.7 for Aston Villa, 0.5 for Fenerbahçe). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–0 (18%), 2–0 (16%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Aston Villa to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is better than our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Aston Villa to win ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Double chance | Aston Villa or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | – |
| Half-time result | Aston Villa ahead at half-time ✓ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa ✓ | 42% | 2.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 18% | 5.53 | – |
Form
Aston Villa – last 6
| 10 Oct | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | @ Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Tottenham | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Coventry | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Nottingham Forest | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Club Brugge KV | 3–2 | W |
Fenerbahçe – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Rizespor | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Turan | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | vs Eyüpspor | 8–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ Gaziantep FK | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Sep | vs AS Roma | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Beşiktaş | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodo/Glimt | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | -16 | 0 |
More UEFA Champions League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our pick is Aston Villa to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Fenerbahçe 12%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.