Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.73 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSA to win ✓69% · @1.36
Double chanceUSA or draw ✓90% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85
USA vs Chile preview and prediction
The match
USA host Chile in the Friendlies on Wednesday 30 September, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Snapdragon Stadium.
Form guide
USA's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Peru 4–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Chile's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Canada 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.6 scored and 2.0 conceded.
USA arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.6 for USA and 1.0 for Chile. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA 69%, draw 21%, Chile 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: USA 2–1 Chile. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA69%fair 1.45 · @1.36
Draw21%fair 4.70 · @4.40
Chile10%fair 10.05 · @6.00
3.63Expected goals
2.61USA xG
1.02Chile xG
62%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–08%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: USA 2.6 – 1.0 Chile expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USA to win✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Double chance
USA or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
USA ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA / FT USA✗
48%
2.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.85
–
Form
USA – last 6
WLWLWW
26 Sep
vs Peru
4–1
W
7 Jul
vs Belgium
1–4
L
2 Jul
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–0
W
26 Jun
@ Türkiye
2–3
L
19 Jun
vs Australia
2–0
W
13 Jun
vs Paraguay
4–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chile – last 5
LWLLW
27 Sep
@ Canada
0–1
L
9 Jun
@ Congo DR
2–1
W
6 Jun
@ Portugal
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ New Zealand
1–4
L
27 Mar
vs Cape Verde Islands
4–2
W
1.6Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Chile.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win USA vs Chile?
On our numbers USA have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chile 10%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Chile?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Chile?
Our predicted score is USA 2–1 Chile, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is USA vs Chile?
USA vs Chile (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Snapdragon Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mexico1
Peru1
Papua New Guinea1
Solomon Islands1
Fiji2
New Caledonia1
Mauritius
Djibouti
Seychelles0
Sri Lanka2
Lithuania3
Andorra0