Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.13
Mexico vs Peru preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees Mexico take on Peru on Wednesday 30 September, kicking off at 02:00 (WAT) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Form guide
Mexico's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Colombia 1–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Peru's last 4: LLWD Most recently they lost to USA 1–4 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Mexico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 2.0 for Mexico and 0.7 for Peru. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mexico 69%, draw 17%, Peru 13%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.50.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mexico to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Mexico 1–0 Peru. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mexico69%fair 1.44 · @1.36
Draw17%fair 5.72 · @4.20
Peru13%fair 7.54 · @7.50
2.64Expected goals
1.96Mexico xG
0.68Peru xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–19%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Mexico 2.0 – 0.7 Peru expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✗
69%
1.44
1.36
Double chance
Mexico or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Mexico ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.13
–
Form
Mexico – last 6
DLWWWW
27 Sep
vs Colombia
1–1
D
6 Jul
vs England
2–3
L
1 Jul
vs Ecuador
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ Czechia
3–0
W
19 Jun
vs South Korea
1–0
W
11 Jun
vs South Africa
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Peru – last 4
LLWD
26 Sep
@ USA
1–4
L
9 Jun
vs Spain
1–3
L
6 Jun
@ Haiti
2–1
W
31 Mar
vs Honduras
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mexico and Peru.
Our pick is Mexico to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mexico vs Peru?
On our numbers Mexico have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Peru 13%.
How many goals will there be in Mexico vs Peru?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mexico vs Peru?
Our predicted score is Mexico 1–0 Peru, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mexico vs Peru?
Mexico vs Peru (Friendlies) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Sports Illustrated Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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Djibouti
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