Value bet: Pro Sesto to win @ 2.65 – our chance 43% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPro Sesto to win ✗43% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · fair 1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.23
USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto preview and prediction
The match
Pro Sesto travel to face USD Casatese in the Serie D Girone D on Sunday 1 November (14:30 WAT). USD Casatese are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Pro Sesto sit 6th on 18 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
USD Casatese's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Pavia 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Pro Sesto's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Sant'Angelo 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.3 for USD Casatese and 1.5 for Pro Sesto. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: USD Casatese 35%, draw 22%, Pro Sesto 43%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Pro Sesto to win at 2.65 – 43% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: USD Casatese 1–1 Pro Sesto. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USD Casatese35%fair 2.89 · @2.43
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.20
Pro Sesto43%fair 2.30 · @2.65
2.86Expected goals
1.33USD Casatese xG
1.53Pro Sesto xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: USD Casatese 1.3 – 1.5 Pro Sesto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pro Sesto to win✗
43%
2.30
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.34
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pro Sesto / FT Pro Sesto✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.23
–
Form
USD Casatese – last 6
LLWLWW
25 Oct
@ Pavia
1–3
L
18 Oct
vs Pro Patria
1–2
L
11 Oct
@ Cittadella Vis Modena
1–0
W
4 Oct
vs Pistoiese
0–3
L
27 Sep
vs Varesina
4–2
W
20 Sep
@ Correggese
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Pro Sesto – last 6
LDDDWW
25 Oct
vs Sant'Angelo
1–2
L
18 Oct
@ Varesina
0–0
D
11 Oct
vs Solbiatese
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Arconatese
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Oltrepò
6–1
W
20 Sep
@ Crema
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USD Casatese and Pro Sesto.
What is the prediction for USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pro Sesto 43%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto?
Our predicted score is USD Casatese 1–1 Pro Sesto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto?
USD Casatese vs Pro Sesto (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
