Serie D Girone D · ItalyCrema vs Cittadella Vis Modena prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cittadella Vis Modena to win @ 2.60 – our chance 43% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Crema 1.1 – 1.3 Cittadella Vis Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cittadella Vis Modena shade it despite being away from home – 43% to win, against 35% for Crema.
Crema have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 per game. Cittadella Vis Modena have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.1 for Crema, 1.3 for Cittadella Vis Modena). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Crema have won 0, Cittadella Vis Modena have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Cittadella Vis Modena to win at 2.60 is our value angle (43% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cittadella Vis Modena to win ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | 2.60 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.71 | 1.79 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.81 | 1.74 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.27 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cittadella Vis Modena / FT Cittadella Vis Modena ✗ | 23% | 4.30 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.49 | – |
Form
Crema – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Lentigione | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Pontedera | 4–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Coriano | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Città di Varese | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Castellanzese | 0–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Pro Sesto | 0–3 | L |
Cittadella Vis Modena – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Pistoiese | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Oltrepò | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs USD Casatese | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Oct | @ Sasso Marconi Zola | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Pontedera | 3–0 | W |
| 27 Sep | vs Correggese | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Crema v Cittadella Vis Modena | 0–0 |
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Crema vs Cittadella Vis Modena?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Crema vs Cittadella Vis Modena?
On our numbers Crema have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cittadella Vis Modena 43%.
How many goals will there be in Crema vs Cittadella Vis Modena?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is Crema vs Cittadella Vis Modena?
Crema vs Cittadella Vis Modena (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.