Serie D Girone D · ItalyVaresina vs Città di Varese prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Città di Varese to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Varesina 1.2 – 1.3 Città di Varese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Varesina and Città di Varese on our numbers – 35% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Varesina have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Città di Varese have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.7 conceded. Città di Varese come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for Varesina, 1.3 for Città di Varese). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (11%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Città di Varese to win at 2.70 is our value angle (40% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Città di Varese to win ✗ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.32 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.68 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Città di Varese / FT Città di Varese ✗ | 22% | 4.46 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 11% | 9.31 | – |
Form
Varesina – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Castellanzese | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | vs Pro Sesto | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Pavia | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Pro Patria | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ USD Casatese | 2–4 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Pistoiese | 0–1 | L |
Città di Varese – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Solbiatese | 0–0 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Arconatese | 5–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Oltrepò | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | vs Pro Patria | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Crema | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Lentigione | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varesina and Città di Varese.
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Varesina vs Città di Varese?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Varesina vs Città di Varese?
On our numbers Varesina have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Città di Varese 40%.
How many goals will there be in Varesina vs Città di Varese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Varesina vs Città di Varese?
Varesina vs Città di Varese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.