Serie D Girone D · ItalyPavia vs Pro Patria prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.31 · bookmaker 1.27 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Pavia 1.0 – 1.2 Pro Patria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Pro Patria shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 33% for Pavia.
Pavia have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Pro Patria have 12 points from their last 6 (3W 3D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Pro Patria come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.0 for Pavia, 1.2 for Pro Patria). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 76% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.27 is close to our fair price of 1.31.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pro Patria to win ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | 2.29 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.82 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.27 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.15 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pro Patria / FT Pro Patria ✗ | 24% | 4.23 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.77 | – |
Form
Pavia – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs USD Casatese | 3–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Pistoiese | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Varesina | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | vs Sant'Angelo | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Correggese | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Arconatese | 1–1 | D |
Pro Patria – last 6
| 28 Oct | @ Leon | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Correggese | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ USD Casatese | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Sant'Angelo | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | @ Città di Varese | 5–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | @ Varesina | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Pro Patria.
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Pavia vs Pro Patria?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Pavia vs Pro Patria?
On our numbers Pavia have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pro Patria 44%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Pro Patria?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Pavia vs Pro Patria?
Pavia vs Pro Patria (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.