Value bet: USD Casatese to win @ 2.45 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSD Casatese to win ✗46% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.17
Pavia vs USD Casatese preview and prediction
The match
Pavia host USD Casatese in the Serie D Girone D on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT). Pavia are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while USD Casatese sit 5th on 19 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Pavia's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Pistoiese 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
USD Casatese's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Pro Patria 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
USD Casatese arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 19 April 2026, finished USD Casatese 1–0 Pavia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Pavia and 1.3 for USD Casatese. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 46%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: USD Casatese to win at 2.45 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Pavia 1–1 USD Casatese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pavia32%fair 3.09 · @2.60
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
USD Casatese46%fair 2.20 · @2.45
2.38Expected goals
1.06Pavia xG
1.33USD Casatese xG
46%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.1 – 1.3 USD Casatese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Pavia vs USD Casatese?
On our numbers Pavia have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and USD Casatese 46%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs USD Casatese?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs USD Casatese?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–1 USD Casatese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs USD Casatese?
Pavia vs USD Casatese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
