Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPro Patria to win ✗63% · @1.73
Double chancePro Patria or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗7% · fair 13.40
Varesina vs Pro Patria preview and prediction
The match
Varesina host Pro Patria in the Serie D Girone D on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT). Varesina are 14th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Pro Patria sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Varesina's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to USD Casatese 2–4 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Pro Patria's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Solbiatese 0–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Pro Patria arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.9 for Varesina and 2.0 for Pro Patria. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score in 46% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Varesina 15%, draw 23%, Pro Patria 63%.
Safer route: Pro Patria or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pro Patria to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.60, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Varesina 0–2 Pro Patria. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Varesina15%fair 6.79 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.50
Pro Patria63%fair 1.60 · @1.73
2.91Expected goals
0.89Varesina xG
2.02Pro Patria xG
46%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Varesina 0.9 – 2.0 Pro Patria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pro Patria to win✗
63%
1.60
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Pro Patria or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Pro Patria ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pro Patria / FT Pro Patria✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–3✗
7%
13.40
–
Form
Varesina – last 6
LLLDWW
27 Sep
@ USD Casatese
2–4
L
20 Sep
vs Pistoiese
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Correggese
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Sant'Angelo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Cittadella Vis Modena
3–2
W
10 May
@ Castellanzese
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pro Patria – last 6
LWWWWW
27 Sep
vs Solbiatese
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Arconatese
3–0
W
16 Sep
vs Crema
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Pontedera
3–2
W
6 Sep
vs Oltrepò
2–1
W
12 Aug
vs Gozzano
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varesina and Pro Patria.
What is the prediction for Varesina vs Pro Patria?
Our pick is Pro Patria to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Varesina vs Pro Patria?
On our numbers Varesina have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pro Patria 63%.
How many goals will there be in Varesina vs Pro Patria?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varesina vs Pro Patria?
Our predicted score is Varesina 0–2 Pro Patria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Varesina vs Pro Patria?
Varesina vs Pro Patria (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
