Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorreggese to win ✓41% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.72
Correggese vs Pavia preview and prediction
The match
Pavia travel to face Correggese in the Serie D Girone D on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). Correggese are 13th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Pavia sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Correggese's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Cittadella Vis Modena 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Pavia's last 5: DDDDL Most recently they drew with Arconatese 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Correggese arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for Correggese and 0.9 for Pavia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Correggese 41%, draw 24%, Pavia 34%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Correggese 1–0 Pavia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Correggese41%fair 2.41 · @2.35
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.10
Pavia34%fair 2.91 · @2.75
1.94Expected goals
1.04Correggese xG
0.90Pavia xG
41%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Correggese 1.0 – 0.9 Pavia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Correggese to win✓
41%
2.41
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.72
–
Form
Correggese – last 6
WLWDDW
27 Sep
@ Cittadella Vis Modena
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs USD Casatese
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Varesina
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Arconatese
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Sant'Angelo
1–1
D
3 May
vs Pro Sesto
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Pavia – last 6
DDDDLW
27 Sep
vs Arconatese
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Sant'Angelo
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Solbiatese
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Crema
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Pisa
1–6
L
10 May
@ Breno
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Correggese and Pavia.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Correggese vs Pavia?
On our numbers Correggese have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pavia 34%.
How many goals will there be in Correggese vs Pavia?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Correggese vs Pavia?
Our predicted score is Correggese 1–0 Pavia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Correggese vs Pavia?
Correggese vs Pavia (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
