Serie D Girone D · ItalyUSD Casatese vs Pistoiese prediction & analysis
Pistoiese to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: USD Casatese 0.9 – 1.9 Pistoiese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Pistoiese travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 18% for USD Casatese.
USD Casatese have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Pistoiese have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 0.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (0.9 for USD Casatese, 1.9 for Pistoiese). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12%), 0–2 (11%), 1–1 (11%).
Our pick is Pistoiese to win at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Pistoiese to win ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Pistoiese or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.23 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.95 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.44 | – |
| Half-time result | Pistoiese ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Pistoiese / FT Pistoiese ✓ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.61 | – |
Form
USD Casatese – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Varesina | 4–2 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Correggese | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Sant'Angelo | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Solbiatese | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Arconatese | 2–1 | W |
| 10 May | vs Leon | 4–0 | W |
Pistoiese – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Sant'Angelo | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Varesina | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Arconatese | 5–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Crema | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Solbiatese | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | @ Seravezza | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USD Casatese and Pistoiese.
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
Our pick is Pistoiese to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pistoiese 61%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
USD Casatese vs Pistoiese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.