Serie D Girone D · ItalySant'Angelo vs Castellanzese prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.31 · Won ✓
Value bet: Castellanzese to win @ 2.93 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sant'Angelo 1.3 – 1.3 Castellanzese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Sant'Angelo and Castellanzese on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 39% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Sant'Angelo have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Castellanzese have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.3 for Sant'Angelo, 1.3 for Castellanzese). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.31 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, Castellanzese to win at 2.93 is our value angle (39% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Castellanzese to win ✓ | 39% | 2.55 | 2.93 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.31 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.30 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Castellanzese / FT Castellanzese ✗ | 21% | 4.67 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.02 | – |
Form
Sant'Angelo – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Pistoiese | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Pavia | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ USD Casatese | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Varesina | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ Correggese | 1–1 | D |
| 3 May | @ Lentigione | 2–2 | D |
Castellanzese – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Crema | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Solbiatese | 4–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Oltrepò | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Lentigione | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Pontedera | 3–1 | W |
| 10 May | vs Varesina | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sant'Angelo and Castellanzese.
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
On our numbers Sant'Angelo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Castellanzese 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.