Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPro Sesto to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chancePro Sesto or draw ✓84% · fair 1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Pro Sesto vs Pontedera preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone D sees Pro Sesto take on Pontedera on Wednesday 16 September, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Stadio Ernesto Breda. Pro Sesto are 6th with 18 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Pontedera sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Pro Sesto's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Città di Varese 2–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pontedera's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Pro Patria 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Pro Sesto arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.1 for Pro Sesto and 1.1 for Pontedera. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 52% and both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pro Sesto 59%, draw 25%, Pontedera 16%.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.20 – 52% on our numbers against 45% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pro Sesto to win – a 59% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pro Sesto 2–1 Pontedera. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pro Sesto59%fair 1.69 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.20
Pontedera16%fair 6.34 · @3.80
3.20Expected goals
2.13Pro Sesto xG
1.07Pontedera xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Pro Sesto 2.1 – 1.1 Pontedera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pro Sesto to win✓
59%
1.69
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Pro Sesto or draw✓
84%
1.19
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Pro Sesto ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pro Sesto / FT Pro Sesto✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Form
Pro Sesto – last 6
WLLWLD
13 Sep
@ Città di Varese
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Lentigione
2–3
L
3 May
@ Correggese
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Tuttocuoio
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Piacenza
1–3
L
2 Apr
@ Pro Palazzolo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Pontedera – last 6
LLLLDL
13 Sep
vs Pro Patria
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ Castellanzese
1–3
L
26 Apr
vs Livorno
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Athletic Carpi
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Bra
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Perugia
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pro Sesto and Pontedera.
What is the prediction for Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
Our pick is Pro Sesto to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
On our numbers Pro Sesto have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pontedera 16%.
How many goals will there be in Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
Our predicted score is Pro Sesto 2–1 Pontedera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
Pro Sesto vs Pontedera (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
